The decision: scorecard, invalidation, and monitoring

The interactive scorecard weighs ten pillars — business quality and moat, returns on capital versus cost of capital, growth durability, earnings and cash flow quality, balance sheet and liquidity, valuation versus implied expectations, management and capital allocation, industry structure and the capital cycle, catalyst clarity, and crowding — each scored −3 to +3. It does not make the decision; it forces you to notice when conviction is coming from one pillar carrying six others, and it warns when a short has no catalyst scored or a long is paying up on quality alone.

The thesis document has seven parts: the one-sentence claim, the variant perception and its evidence, the catalyst and its date, base/bull/bear numbers, the invalidation written in falsifiable terms before entry, the position size and structure chosen from the distance to invalidation, and the monitoring plan.

Then run the pre-mortem: it is twelve months later and the position lost money — write the story of how, and check whether its leading indicators are already visible in the filings. Afterwards, update only the two or three variables the thesis depends on, and distinguish thesis drift from genuine evolution by re-reading what you wrote at entry, verbatim, every quarter.

Educational, not investment advice.