Valuation methods: from multiple to model

Relative valuation means plotting a company's own EV/EBIT and FCF yield over ten years and asking what was true at each extreme, then building a genuine peer set on definitions you normalised yourself. A DCF's honest truth is that 60–80% of the value usually sits in the terminal value, so its real use is the sensitivity table, not the output number.

The reverse DCF inverts the question: instead of asking what a company is worth, it solves for the free cash flow growth rate today's price requires. That is the cleanest way to test a long ("the price only needs 3% and the industry grows 6%") and a short ("the price requires 22% for a decade, which would make it larger than its addressable market"). The interactive solver takes enterprise value, current FCF, discount rate, terminal growth and forecast length, and refuses — with a reason — on negative FCF or a discount rate at or below terminal growth.

Sum of the parts reveals conglomerate discounts and hidden crown jewels; replacement cost governs new supply and identifies cyclical bottoms; net asset value gives a floor when the marks are honest; precedent transactions must be read against the credit environment they happened in. Assemble a range, not a number, and compare the distance to your bear case with the distance to your bull case.

Educational, not investment advice.